Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 09:18:04 09/05/01
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On September 05, 2001 at 06:27:53, Sune Fischer wrote: >On September 05, 2001 at 01:37:25, Slater Wold wrote: > >>>>So we're a little less than 9 years away. :) >>>> >>>> >>>>Slate >>> >>>Not quite according to my calculator: >>> >>> 64 GHz in 90 months ... and then comes NOT 1.28 THz in 108 months, >>>but rather: 128 GHz in 108 months >>> 256 GHz in 126 months >>> 512 GHz in 144 months >>> 1 THz in 162 months (about 13.5 years from now) >> >>You're right. 1000Ghz is 1.0Thz. >> >>Forgive me. I post while sometimes still asleep. > >Hmm, I get 14.22 years if I assume the doubling time is 1.5 years and current >speed is 1.4 GHz. > >time(speed) = ln(speed/1.4GHz)*(T2/ln2), where T2=1.5 years. >Now put in speed = 1000 GHz and you get 14.22 years. > >You could also sove two equations with two unknowns: >x = time/1.5 years >1000 GHz = 1.4 GHz * 2^x > >here I get x=9.48 and so time = 9.48*1.5 years = 14.22 > I think Moore's law used "18 - 24 months", not strictly 18 months. Perhaps using the average, 21 months, is more reasonable going forward? (After all, PC sales are down for the first time EVER, and sales drive everything else. This slump we're in smells different from any other thus far and may signal a slope change in the curve. Nothing continues unchanged forever!)
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