Author: Ed Panek
Date: 12:13:56 09/05/01
Go up one level in this thread
On September 05, 2001 at 13:07:50, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On September 05, 2001 at 04:53:40, Slater Wold wrote: > >>On September 05, 2001 at 04:04:14, derrick gatewood wrote: >> >>>actually, though I am not going to make a prediction about the strength of the >>>program, I will say a little about hardware plans for the next ten years. >>>Though it is a little early, market demand will mean everything and right now >>>Intel and especially AMD do not really need to make faster chips. However, >>>Intel has plans within the 10 year product line to release a 10ghz processor for >>>desktop computers, which is a far cry from what is being predicted in the >>>1.0thz. Also, isnt it the smaller the die size, the lower consumption of >>>electricity? So, it is my understand as we get to smaller technologies, top >>>the point of atomic computing, electricity use will be very insignicant, while >>>computing power will be incredible. There are no plans, however, to release any >>>atomic computing solutions in the nears future though =/ >> >>I was simply stating what has happened in the past, and that is, CPU speed >>doubles every 18 months. It has since computers were invented, all the way up >>until now. Why would it stop here? >> >>Don't try to tell me that going from a Pentium 100mhz to a Pentium 1000mhz is >>easier than going from a Pentium 1000mhz to a Pentium 2000mhz. Or from 2000mhz >>to 3000mhz. That simply is not true, and is not acceptable.\ > >Actually, that _is_ true. Doubling the speed means cutting the size of >the die by a factor of 4. So it is four times harder to go two times faster, >for every time you want to go two times faster. That is getting more and >more difficult. And has to do with the wavelength of light and the images >that can be used to create silicon chips. > > > > >> >>Thoughts like that only doom it NOT to happen. Had people 5 years ago had this >>thinking, we'd all still be using Pentium 90's. And I remember when the P90's >>came out, and I worked my ass off for 3 straight months to afford it. (I was 17 >>years old.) And I am sure I will work my ass off for the 3000mhz when they come >>out. >> >> >>Slate > > >They will come, but it is not clear that the 18 month cycle will be preserved >for the forseeable future. It has already started to lengthen... rather than hoping for a linear year to year increase in actual cpu power we should expect watershed developments to sort of stagger the racer to the finish line. Hopefully as one technology reaches its ending a new one will take over either at the same place or very close to it. Ed
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