Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 12:24:56 09/05/01
Go up one level in this thread
On September 05, 2001 at 15:13:06, Dann Corbit wrote: >On September 05, 2001 at 14:47:04, Geo Disher wrote: > >>Does anyone know if Vegas has odds on the Deep Fritz Vs Kramnik. This might be >>an opertunity to make some easy money on people that don't know high the >>probability is of his winning. They tell me you can bet on just about anything >>their. >> >>On the other hand they may tell us just how lopsided this match really is. > >The odds won't tell us anything but how the people are betting. > >There is a ratio which has a tiny gap in the middle, which is always owned by >the casino. If bets start to flood one way or the other, they simply change the >odds on new bets to ensure that no matter what happens, they always make money. > >There is no need for casino's to be accurate. As long as people bet in a heavy >stream on both sides of the issue, there is no way that they can lose money, and >so they don't have to have any inkling of how it might turn out. > >Do you imagine that casio owners actually know more about how such a match might >turn out than computer chess junkies and chess players do? > >Not a chance. I think that was the original point. Common people who make bets DON'T know much about chess. The common conception is that computers are better than humans. So the masses will bet against Kramnik, making the odds favorable for those of us who know better!
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