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Subject: Re: About the Elo of Fritz at 70 thz or ghz(forgot which one)...

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 13:08:11 09/06/01

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On September 06, 2001 at 15:24:39, derrick gatewood wrote:

>It seems to me that there is an easy way to determine its strength by a simple
>equation.  All you need to do is do a strength test with fritz at 200mhz,  then
>one at 500 mhz,  then one at 1000mhz.  That should give you an accurate model to
>predict what will happen at 70ghz.(yeah,  I know it will be quite inaccurate,
>but it would be at least more accurate than a straight out guess.)

No.  You can't extrapolate.
The memory speed -- will it match?
How about tablebase access -- is it also going to get a stupendous boost?

The only way to know is to benchmark it.  An extrapolation could be off by many
orders of magnitude.  It could also be that a new future chip will have an
enormous level one cache that contains the whole program -- now running at full
CPU speed.  So it could also be better than expected.

Of course, both guessing and extrapolation can be great fun, so guess and
extrapolate away -- just don't expect to be within 5% of the true answer.



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