Author: Christopher R. Dorr
Date: 14:30:24 09/07/01
Go up one level in this thread
On September 07, 2001 at 15:55:06, Roy Eassa wrote: >On September 07, 2001 at 15:38:12, Christopher R. Dorr wrote: > >>On September 07, 2001 at 15:17:20, Roy Eassa wrote: >> >>>On September 07, 2001 at 09:43:00, Christopher R. Dorr wrote: >>> >>>>I really do not see these conditions as a huge advantage for Kramnik. >>>> >>>>1. If Kramnik was going to play a serious match against a human GM, he would >>>>study all the games by him/her in depth. Most human GMs would have hundreds or >>>>thousands of games to study. Deep Fritz does NOT have these games yet. A >>>>reasonable alternative would be to allow the GM to use the program before hand. >>>>The CB team certainly has studied *all* of Kramnik's games closely. Why should >>>>the computer have the advantage of knowing the GMs style and weaknesses when the >>>>GM does not get to understand the computers? >>>> >>> >>>The GM is not just going to UNDERSTAND the computer, he is able to prepare >>>dozens of EXACT WINNING GAMES in advance, the moves of which Fritz will repeat >>>in the match. The computer cannot "adapt" to this strategy. (Even if his >>>personal copy of Fritz has "learned" to avoid certain openings, that learning >>>will not carry over to the copy used in the match.) >> >>So Kramnik has an advantage because of the inherent construction of a >>semi-deterministic machine? The CB team won't be able to modify the book so that >>the opening probability weights are modified in the match book? To get to the >>same middlegame, the same opening moves must be played. Somehow, Kramnik is >>going to remember multiple games in *every* variation of the Sicilian the box >>might play? Every subvariation? Every variation of the French? Every >>Subvariation? Every variation of the Caro? Every subvariation? Every variation >>of the Spanish? Every subvariation? And he's going to play them at the exact >>same time that he did in his preparation, so that DF can't go 1 ply deeper and >>see something else, or ends up one ply shallower, and plays something different? >>Impressive. >> >> >>> >>>>2. Fritz can change it's book at will. If there *are* any 'predetermined' games, >>>>they arise from the opening. Modify the book, elimninate the problem. >>>> >>> >>>Nope. There are always going to be oddball moves that take the computer out of >>>book immediately. Remember, Kramnik does NOT need to figure these out during >>>the match. He has MONTHS to work out numerous odd lines IN ADVANCE that he >>>KNOWS the compuer will mis-play. Once again, the computer cannot "adapt" to >>>this technique as a human might. >> >> >>As I said in another post, you can certainly throw in some trash openings. If >>Kramnik plays 1.h4 in his prep and comes out with a winning line after the >>machine plays 1.Nf6, what happens when the DF people toss in a few lines where >>after 1.h4, DF plays c5? Suddenly, Kramnik has played a terrible move, hoping >>for a trap that now won't come. Who has the advantage now? This isn't some 3 0 >>ICC match. There's a million bucks on the line. Kramnik's going to risk that >>kind of nonsense, when he has the built-in advantage of being a great positional >>player? >> >>> >>>> >>>>3. And I doubt there could be predetermined games anyway. Think about the >>>>variety of openings. Kramnik is going to *find* and *memorize* killer lines in >>>>everything? As black, he would have to prepare for at least 12 major openings by >>>>white, and literally hundreds of important subvariations (If he chooses to play >>>>a Scheveningen Sicilian, for example, you need to worry about Keres attack with >>>>h3, Keres Attack with Rg1, Classical, Bc4, King's Indian Attack......). And >>>>remember, there are already very few *big* holes in Fritz's opening book. The >>>>*small* ones Kramnik would find would likely be further down the tree, making it >>>>even more unlikely that he could spring a particular trap. >>>> >>> >>>See last response. Kramnik could avoid "good" openings altogether and play >>>utterly "bad," unknown lines that a strong human might refute positionally; the >>>computer's responses can be KNOWN IN ADVANCE and Kramnik and his team have >>>plenty of time to find REPEATABLE variations in which Fritz is KNOWN to play in >>>a losing way. Even if only 1 in 50 "bad" openings work against Fritz, months is >>>plenty of time to find and learn those 1 in 50. [Somebody reputed to be Bobby >>>Fischer has been annihilating IMs on ICC using openings that are horribly bad, >>>like f3, Kf2, Ke3 as White's first 3 moves. If it's possible to recover from >>>such horrendous moves against a strong human (admittedly in a fast game), it's >>>certainly possible to find less-horrible lines that will never be in any >>>computer's book yet that the computer repeatedly mis-plays.] >>> >> >>And again, as soon as the DF people have modified the opening book with some new >>responses to trash, then Kramnik is playing 1.f3 against a FIDE 2600. Think >>he'll risk that with a million dollars on the line? That would be insane. >> >> >> >>>> >>>>Overall, I do not see Kramnik as getting a huge advantage. He didn't get the >>>>source code. The program isn't under a 'truth serum'. He has access to it's >>>>play, just as CB has access to all of Kramnik's games. As matches go, I see this >>>>one as fairly equal in it's treatment of the two players. >>> >>> >>>The source code would be nearly useless to Kramnik. But for the reasons I >>>mentioned above, the match is hardly fair or even. >>> >>> >>>Note: Kramnik MAY very well choose to take the high road and avoid the above >>>methods. I even think it's more than 50% likely he will. However, I am quite >>>certain that, if he and his team of helpers wanted, they could win EVERY GAME >>>against Fritz by the above methods. >> >> >>Doubtful. Again, modification of the opening book makes trash openings useless. >>Playing against style against a 2600 computer will get one killed fast. Want to >>know how Kramnik will win this match? Same way he would have won this match >>without ever seeing a copy of DF. By playing good, sound positional chess (like >>that which helped him become world champion) and outplaying an opponent who is >>almost certainly weaker than he. It's that simple. >> >>Chris > > >An opening book can cover only a small percentage of what is legally playable in >the first 4 moves. (There are billions of possible legal sequences in the first >4 moves.) > >There is NO RISK in playing a weak opening against an opponent against whom >you've played that exact line before and which has always responded with the >exact same losing sequence of moves. There is *tons* of risk when you know there is a 25% chance he will respond differently. How hard is it to change the book? Not hard at all. I did it myself with NOW and the old Harvard Cup. Put in some anti-trash lines, so that the program would at least get to a reasonable position. Do you honestly think Kramnik would take a risk that Fritz may well play differently against some utter crap like 1.f3? Of course not. because if Fritz *did* vary, kramnik would be *dead*. 1.f3 against a 2600 GM at 40/2 is suicide. Period. Kramnik isn't stupid. > >Again, an opening book can cover only a small percentage of what is legally >playable in the first 4 moves. Kramnik & team can iterate through thousands of >lines that wouldn't be in ANY opening book, find the tiny percentage (still >DOZENS) that Fritz ALWAYS mis-plays, and learn those cold. If Kramnik took this >approach, Fritz would find itself in a lost position so early, it would never >reach a playable middlegame. And again, *Fritz* doesn't play those lines.....it's *opening book* does. Change the book, change the behaviour. You think that there are lines that lead to positions that favorable in *literally hundreds* of variations? Trust me. there aren't. And you think that even if there were, that Kramnik could remember them? Do a little experiment. Take a random position. Let a decent program think on it for 1 minute. Let it think on it for 1 minute 10 seconds. At least 3-5% of the time, it will play a different move. So Kramnik is somehow going to ime this all just like it was in his prematch prep? Nonsense.
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.