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Subject: Re: Vegas odds on Fritz Vs Kramnik match

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:32:58 09/07/01

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On September 07, 2001 at 23:19:20, Dave Gomboc wrote:

>On September 07, 2001 at 13:34:53, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On September 07, 2001 at 00:39:39, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>>
>>>On September 06, 2001 at 13:13:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>Here is my take:
>>>>
>>>>If DF wins convincingly (IE by a more than one-game margin) then I will have
>>>>to re-think my GM evaluation.  If DF wins by .5 or 1.0 points, it is possible
>>>>that Kramnik was too conservative, then lost one game by accident, and couldn't
>>>>catch up.  If the match is tied, it won't say much either.  If Kramnik wins
>>>>by some narrow margin, it could mean one of two things.  He was lucky.  Or he
>>>>was ultra-conservative.
>>>
>>>Don't you think it a bit odd that it would take a convincing win over the world
>>>champion to convince you that the program is of GM strength? :-)
>>
>>No... for the reasons I gave.  IE suppose the first 7 games are simple
>>draws, dictated by the GM's play.  And suppose he tries to win the last
>>game and makes a simple tactical error.  I watched a GM game on ICC yesterday
>>between Polgar and Short (short was white).  Polgar defended nicely against
>>a kingside attack and ended up a pawn up.  But in a very hard to win position.
>>Suddenly, Short played Rg2 and Crafty's score _instantly_ went to -5 (black
>>was winning).  And I mean _instantly_.  And the deeper it searched, the better
>>this got for black.  When I looked at the board for about 10 seconds, I could
>>see the problem too (white was losing a pinned piece due to a queen check
>>that made the king move and simultaneuosly attacked the pinned piece once more
>>than it was defended.).
>>
>>Is short much worse than Polgar?  hardly.  That is why a win due to a simple
>>error won't be very convincinging.  If Kramnik comes out swinging, and plays
>>to win in every game, then a single point victory by fritz will mean a _lot_.
>>
>>That is why I said "it all depends on the final score and the chess that was
>>played in each individual game."  A conservative approach would be to play
>>cautiously in each game, waiting for a positional mistake that you believe
>>you can exploit to win.  If you do this and draw the first 7 games by choice,
>>then the last game isn't going to be a good indication of who is better.  If
>>you try to win every game by playing either anti-computer or traditional chess,
>>then the match result will be more revealing.
>
>Fair enough.
>
>>>My personal opinion is that when this "are computers GM strength?" debate began,
>>>you were correct to say that no, but that times have since changed.  I don't for
>>>a moment doubt that the leading computer programs can be made to look pathetic
>>>from time to time, but the flip side is that they can and do play some pretty
>>>damn good chess games as well.
>>>
>>>Dave
>>
>>They can play good chess when the humans let them do so.  But block the position
>>and every program I have seen looks like a complete moron.  The question is,
>>will the human choose to do this, or will he choose to play normal chess where
>>a program can often look just like a super-gm given the right positions.
>>
>>If I play you in tennis, and I know you have a dynamite forehand, you are
>>_never_ going to return a ball from your right side of the court, because I
>>am never going to hit it there, except when I drive you wide to the other side
>>and then want to make you run a bit.  IE I will _never_ play to your strength,
>>as it simply makes no sense, other than to occasionally keep you honest.
>
>It seems to me that there is a large percentage of GMs who are either unable or
>unwilling to take this approach when they play programs.  Joel Benjamin is
>excellent at pounding the things (that's why the DB team got him onboard) but
>most GMs don't have the same ability he does at knowing how the machine thinks
>and using that against it.



There are several that know the machines pretty well.  Roman certainly comes
to mind.  Julio Kaplan is another as he played Cray Blitz a lot of games as he
lived very close to Harry in California.  Benjamin comes to mind.  Mike Valvo
used to be hell vs computers and could probably beat _any_ computer in a
correspondence-type game (24 hours or more per move).  Yasser is another good
example.  And I am sure I have forgotten others.  Mecking has learned the "how
to draw a computer" strategies pretty well on ICC and uses them to advantage
when the machines will allow it.  Shirov also seems to have a good grasp of
how to slowly build up a kingside attack.





>
>We saw Fritz get smoked badly in a late game in the Dutch Championship, but we
>also saw it smash a GM who was trying to keep things closed just a few rounds
>earlier.  Even when GMs are trying to play anti-computer, they don't always
>succeed.  Add that to those who don't bother or are unable to do so, and you've
>got a significant number of games where the programs are quite capable of
>winning.
>
>Dave



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