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Subject: Re: Vegas odds on Fritz Vs Kramnik match

Author: Vincent Diepeveen

Date: 09:17:19 09/08/01

Go up one level in this thread


On September 07, 2001 at 13:34:53, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On September 07, 2001 at 00:39:39, Dave Gomboc wrote:
>
>>On September 06, 2001 at 13:13:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>Here is my take:
>>>
>>>If DF wins convincingly (IE by a more than one-game margin) then I will have
>>>to re-think my GM evaluation.  If DF wins by .5 or 1.0 points, it is possible
>>>that Kramnik was too conservative, then lost one game by accident, and couldn't
>>>catch up.  If the match is tied, it won't say much either.  If Kramnik wins
>>>by some narrow margin, it could mean one of two things.  He was lucky.  Or he
>>>was ultra-conservative.
>>
>>Don't you think it a bit odd that it would take a convincing win over the world
>>champion to convince you that the program is of GM strength? :-)
>
>No... for the reasons I gave.  IE suppose the first 7 games are simple
>draws, dictated by the GM's play.  And suppose he tries to win the last
>game and makes a simple tactical error.  I watched a GM game on ICC yesterday
>between Polgar and Short (short was white).  Polgar defended nicely against
>a kingside attack and ended up a pawn up.  But in a very hard to win position.
>Suddenly, Short played Rg2 and Crafty's score _instantly_ went to -5 (black
>was winning).  And I mean _instantly_.  And the deeper it searched, the better
>this got for black.  When I looked at the board for about 10 seconds, I could
>see the problem too (white was losing a pinned piece due to a queen check
>that made the king move and simultaneuosly attacked the pinned piece once more
>than it was defended.).

Official FIDE July 2001 Rating List :

1 Kasparov, Garry           g RUS 2838 13.04.1963
2 Kramnik, Vladimir         g RUS 2802 25.06.1975
3 Anand, Viswanathan        g IND 2794 11.12.1969
4 Morozevich, Alexander     g RUS 2749 18.07.1977
5 Adams, Michael            g ENG 2744 17.11.1971
6 Ivanchuk, Vassily         g UKR 2731 18.03.1969
7 Leko, Peter               g HUN 2730 08.09.1979
8 Bareev, Evgeny            g RUS 2719 21.11.1966
9 Topalov, Veselin          g BUL 2711 15.03.1975
10 Shirov, Alexei           g ESP 2706 04.07.1972
11 Gelfand, Boris           g ISR 2704 24.06.1968
12 Kasimdzhanov, Rustam     g UZB 2704 05.12.1979
13 Smirin, Ilia             g ISR 2702 21.01.1968
14 Khalifman, Alexander     g RUS 2700 18.01.1966
15 Svidler, Peter           g RUS 2695 17.06.1976
16 Georgiev, Kiril          g BUL 2695 28.11.1965
17 Van Wely, Loek           g NED 2695 07.10.1972
18 Karpov, Anatoly          g RUS 2692 23.05.1951
19 Dreev, Alexey            g RUS 2690 30.01.1969

20 Polgar, Judit            g HUN 2686 23.07.1976

21 Ponomariov, Ruslan       g UKR 2684 11.10.1983
22 Ye, Jiangchuan           g CHN 2677 20.11.1960
23 Lautier, Joel            g FRA 2675 12.04.1973
24 Azmaiparashvili, Zurab   g GEO 2674 16.03.1960
25 Grischuk, Alexander      g RUS 2669 31.10.1983
26 Zhang, Zhong             g CHN 2667 05.09.1978
27 Onischuk, Alexander      g UKR 2667 03.09.1975

28 Short, Nigel D.          g ENG 2664 01.06.1965

Note the first American on the list is probably Seirawan?

Exactly 14 people are >= 2700
and exactly 96 persons are >= 2600 (>= 2700 also included)

short is around 22 points lower rated than polgar

But it's important to realize there are only about 100 strong chessplayers
in this world who can play a game without blundering a piece away and play
the rest strong too.

>Is short much worse than Polgar?  hardly.  That is why a win due to a simple
>error won't be very convincinging.  If Kramnik comes out swinging, and plays
>to win in every game, then a single point victory by fritz will mean a _lot_.

Right, the number of strong chessplayers in the world is very limited
and they are prepared for all the stronger players, so they usually are
happy with a draw versus a computer as they don't see the thing as
competition.

>That is why I said "it all depends on the final score and the chess that was
>played in each individual game."  A conservative approach would be to play
>cautiously in each game, waiting for a positional mistake that you believe
>you can exploit to win.  If you do this and draw the first 7 games by choice,
>then the last game isn't going to be a good indication of who is better.  If
>you try to win every game by playing either anti-computer or traditional chess,
>then the match result will be more revealing.
>
>
>
>
>
>>
>>My personal opinion is that when this "are computers GM strength?" debate began,
>>you were correct to say that no, but that times have since changed.  I don't for
>>a moment doubt that the leading computer programs can be made to look pathetic
>>from time to time, but the flip side is that they can and do play some pretty
>>damn good chess games as well.
>>
>>Dave
>
>They can play good chess when the humans let them do so.  But block the position
>and every program I have seen looks like a complete moron.  The question is,
>will the human choose to do this, or will he choose to play normal chess where
>a program can often look just like a super-gm given the right positions.
>
>If I play you in tennis, and I know you have a dynamite forehand, you are
>_never_ going to return a ball from your right side of the court, because I
>am never going to hit it there, except when I drive you wide to the other side
>and then want to make you run a bit.  IE I will _never_ play to your strength,
>as it simply makes no sense, other than to occasionally keep you honest.



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