Author: Thomas Mayer
Date: 18:52:27 09/23/01
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Hi José, >> Is this true regardless of what XXX is? To rephrase, while going from 350 >> megahertz to 700 might yield a 60-point elo bonus, would going from 1 >> gigahertz to 2 gigahertz also yield 60 points? And what about a hypothetical >> 2 gigahertz to 4 gigahertz? Isn't there a horizon effect whereby the elo >> gain diminishes? > That's my opinion too. There must be a flattening of the curve, according to > my intuition. In the extreme case going from 6000 plies to 6001 plies doesn't > matter, because you are seeing the whole game. The same applies to time so, if > in the end, the gain is zero, there must be a slow flattening, or a step. I > believe it's a slow flattening. theoretically I fully agree - but I believe that we are far away from any flattening... Think about chess and what the solution might be... What is the initial positon ? Mate in 500, Mate in 600, more ? Or is it a forced draw in 1000 ??? We do not know, but that means that are 1000-2000 plys... and we are not near to that... when I am thinking about the curve we are not very wide after the beginning, so I think the 60 ELO rule (which is quite conservative) for doubling hardware speed in computer-computer matches is still correct - maybe the next 10 years also... with humans it is different - strategics have nothing to do with depth... So I believe that the beasts will get more dangerous in future, but even the best computers as long they have the current technics will loose from time to time a game against a human... Greets, Thomas
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