Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 06:58:38 09/24/01
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On September 23, 2001 at 11:51:02, Mike S. wrote: >On September 23, 2001 at 11:13:14, José Carlos wrote: > >>(...) Besides, I belive the "scale" (if we can >>use this term) is smaler in human world than in comp-comp world, meaning that a >>small difference between two versions of a program (or two different programs, >>of course) can appear over and over in games, translating into more and more >>rating points. > >This would be the case only if it's not just a small, but also a decisive >difference, furthermore many programs have position learning. > >But there's another aspect of this type of speed/strength estimation: The faster >program can't be +60 elo (or whatever the value is) stronger at every move in a >game. Actually, many moves will be the same on 400 MHz and on 800 MHz, if this >is the only difference of the conditions. In some positions, moves will be >different but not necessarily stronger (i.e., if there is a number of moves >within a narrow margin of evaluations). Btw. I've heard experiments have been >made, showing that approx. 16% of moves are different if the search is one ply >deeper. You are thinking about "Elo" wrongly. Elo is a _game outcome_ predictor. There is no "60 elo on every move". There _is_ a 60 elo when applied to a game. It is possible that on the right move, a 2x faster machine is 500 elo stronger. But overall, it is 60 elo better. that 60 is what the formula measures... > >So I think there is a very small number of moves, maybe only one or two per >game, where the higher speed is decisive for the result. Humans are certainly >more flexible in time consumption, and probably can adapt better to that than >programs. Furthermore, the higher speed affects only parts of a programs >performance. Opening book, egtbs, and parts of what can be described as >knowledge (in human terms) of the program, is the same at all cpu speeds and >time settings. > >Regards, >M.Scheidl In the "Crafty goes Deep" experiment, we found that Crafty would change its mind about 15% of the time, if it is given more and more time. This held true for machines that could do in 3 minutes what we did in 24 hours 2 years ago. It will be a _long_ time before the hardware to make that happens, and causes us to have to run another set of 24 hour positions again..
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