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Subject: Re: by 2006 96% of all comp vs comp games will be draws

Author: Christophe Theron

Date: 20:29:55 10/08/01

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On October 08, 2001 at 23:20:41, K. Burcham wrote:

>
>
>it seems the higher you go in your chess level, the more draws that
>  will be.
>
>with five more years of book improvements, engine advances, and inmprovements
>  in egtb's, and after reading this page at the inquirer, the level of comp
>  play will be at a very high level. 20 gig processors should hit at least
>  15000 kns. with improvements these might hit 20000 kns. if these become
>available in smp then you are talking about 30000 to 35000 kns. with huge
>improvements in buss speeds and total ram capacity, we will have "auto hash on".
>there will be no hash settings by then, and hash will not have physical limits.
>
>at this level of play, with this number of kns, search depths will be at
> an unbelievable level. with search depths at 25 to 45, comp chess will
> be looked at different then we view it today.



We are currently reaching 13-14-15 plies, and with computers 20 times faster we
cannot even hope to get 4 plies deeper.

So your 25-45 plies figures are completely wrong. It will be 17-18-19, maybe 20
if we manage to get significant algorithmic improvements.



    Christophe




>maybe i better brush up on my board skills.
>
>
>http://www.theinquirer.net/08100101.htm
>
>kburcham



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