Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 10:56:45 10/09/01
Go up one level in this thread
On October 09, 2001 at 11:56:27, Christophe Theron wrote: >On October 09, 2001 at 05:47:25, Dann Corbit wrote: >>On October 09, 2001 at 05:19:00, Uri Blass wrote: >>>On October 08, 2001 at 05:48:55, Daniel Clausen wrote: >>>>Hi >>>> >>>>On October 08, 2001 at 03:13:22, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>[snip] >>>> >>>>>In average 3,70. This gives (log2/log3,7)*84 = 45 points for speed doubling. >>>>>Previously it has been spoken about 60-70 points for doubling, so there is >>>>>diminishing returns now! >>>>> >>>>>Jouni >>>> >>>>That or either the previous or the new claim is based on shaky data. ;) >>>> >>>>Sargon >>> >>>In reply to Dann Corbit I can say that the error here is smaller than the error >>>of one program because when we look at the average gain of a lot of programs we >>>get smaller error than the erro in one program. >>> >>>I guess that the error margin for the average is close to 10 elo. >> >>Unless, of course, it is larger. >>There are a lot of variables, all moving at once. >>You might be right. But if you are right, it is because you are a good guesser. > >Uri prefers solid data over guesses, but when he has to guess in general he is a >good guesser. :) > >Anyway it is true that even +/-10 elo on this matter is a HUGE error bar. We are >trying to detect a change of 10 elo in improvement from doubling the computer >speed. 60-10=50 45+10=55 With a 10 ELO error for a single standard deviation, the answers overlap. As others have pointed out, the number of draws found in the games for the fastest CPU's (in comparison with the same programs on slower CPU's) might be examined for statistical relevance.
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