Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: chess stats question

Author: James Swafford

Date: 15:17:39 10/31/01

Go up one level in this thread


On October 31, 2001 at 18:14:41, James Swafford wrote:

>
>I'm playing around with a hyperbolic tangent function in order
>to predict a reward [-1 ... 1] based on my raw evaluation score
>of the principal variation.
>
>I've come up with predicted_reward = tanh(pawn_adv/300), where
>a pawn advantage of 1 pawn ---> pawn_adv=100.
>
>The following table shows the relationship between pawn_adv and
>predicted_reward:
>

Actually, that's pawn_adv/100 vs. predicted_reward...


>pawn_adv   predicted_reward
>.1         .033
>.25        .083
>.33        .11
>.4         .133
>.5         .165
>.75        .245
>1          .32
>2          .58
>3          .76
>4          .87
>5          .93
>6          .964
>7          .981
>8          .990
>9          .995
>10         .9975
>12         .9993
>15         .9999
>
>So... a 1 pawn advantage yields a predicted reward of .32.
>
>Has anybody done research, or know of research, that can tell me
>how close those figures are?  i.e. if your program obtains a
>1 pawn advantage, do you know how likely it is to win?
>
>Tridgell and Baxter's paper says they give a one pawn advantage
>a predicted reward of .25, but it doesn't say why they chose
>that number.  Maybe they pulled it out of thin air, I don't know.
>
>Comments?  Anybody know of a better function than tanh() to
>do this?
>
>--
>James



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.