Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:34:28 11/16/01
Go up one level in this thread
On November 17, 2001 at 00:25:14, Ed Schröder wrote: >On November 16, 2001 at 19:12:59, Christophe Theron wrote: > >>On November 16, 2001 at 16:20:45, Hansjoerg wrote: >> >>>Some time ago I posted the (surprising) result from an engine tournament between >>>Fritz 7 and Junior 7 (14.5-4.5). >>>Now I finished 100 games and the result is F7 (49.5) - J7 (50.5)! >> >> >> >>Welcome to the world of statistics! >> >> >> >> Christophe > > >Yep, ask any casino director where his profit comes from :) > >I once have written a 10-line C program, it randomly generates a score >(1-0, 1/2-1/2, 0-1) and then starts counting. Results vary tremendously. <snipped> >100 games: 70-30 I understand your idea but 70-30 between equal programs does not make sense. The probability for it between equal players is very low(I did not calculate but I am sure that less than 0.1%). The variance in one game is 1/6 and it means the variance in 100 games is 100/6 and it means the standard deviation in 100 games is less than 4.1 being almost 5 standrad deviation give a very small probability and I am sure that it is less than 0.1% and I believe that it is even less than 0.01% If you get 70-30 in a match of 100 games you can be practically sure that the winner is better. Uri
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