Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:36:00 11/16/01
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On November 17, 2001 at 01:34:28, Uri Blass wrote: >On November 17, 2001 at 00:25:14, Ed Schröder wrote: > >>On November 16, 2001 at 19:12:59, Christophe Theron wrote: >> >>>On November 16, 2001 at 16:20:45, Hansjoerg wrote: >>> >>>>Some time ago I posted the (surprising) result from an engine tournament between >>>>Fritz 7 and Junior 7 (14.5-4.5). >>>>Now I finished 100 games and the result is F7 (49.5) - J7 (50.5)! >>> >>> >>> >>>Welcome to the world of statistics! >>> >>> >>> >>> Christophe >> >> >>Yep, ask any casino director where his profit comes from :) >> >>I once have written a 10-line C program, it randomly generates a score >>(1-0, 1/2-1/2, 0-1) and then starts counting. Results vary tremendously. ><snipped> >>100 games: 70-30 > >I understand your idea but >70-30 between equal programs does not make sense. >The probability for it between equal players is very low(I did not calculate but >I am sure that less than 0.1%). > >The variance in one game is 1/6 and it means the variance in 100 games is 100/6 >and it means the standard deviation in 100 games is less than 4.1 > >being almost 5 standrad deviation I meant being almost 5 standard deviation above the average that is 50 give a very small probability and I am sure >that it is less than 0.1% and I believe that it is even less than 0.01% > >If you get 70-30 in a match of 100 games you can be practically sure that the >winner is better. > >Uri
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