Author: Peter McKenzie
Date: 01:13:45 11/17/01
Go up one level in this thread
On November 17, 2001 at 03:23:23, Ed Schröder wrote: >On November 17, 2001 at 01:34:28, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On November 17, 2001 at 00:25:14, Ed Schröder wrote: >> >>>On November 16, 2001 at 19:12:59, Christophe Theron wrote: >>> >>>>On November 16, 2001 at 16:20:45, Hansjoerg wrote: >>>> >>>>>Some time ago I posted the (surprising) result from an engine tournament between >>>>>Fritz 7 and Junior 7 (14.5-4.5). >>>>>Now I finished 100 games and the result is F7 (49.5) - J7 (50.5)! >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>Welcome to the world of statistics! >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Christophe >>> >>> >>>Yep, ask any casino director where his profit comes from :) >>> >>>I once have written a 10-line C program, it randomly generates a score >>>(1-0, 1/2-1/2, 0-1) and then starts counting. Results vary tremendously. >><snipped> >>>100 games: 70-30 >> >>I understand your idea but >>70-30 between equal programs does not make sense. > > >But Uri, you can program yourself, just try it. It is pure statistics. but that is just the point, Uri was saying that 'pure statistics' would make a 70-30 result between equal programs extremely unlikely. Getting late here, so I don't have the energy to check it but I suspect he is correct. perhaps your psuedo rng wasn't so good? Also, (I know this topic has been done to death before but I wasn't listening) if you really want to simulate it accurately you need to simulate the correct draw percentage I think. I think a high draw percentage increases the variance, agreed? > >And if you are not convinced, run 1000 blitz games, divide them in parts >of 100, and you will see at least one 70-30 score. Are you sure? If so, how sure? :-) > >Ed > > > > > >>The probability for it between equal players is very low(I did not calculate but >>I am sure that less than 0.1%). >> >>The variance in one game is 1/6 and it means the variance in 100 games is 100/6 >>and it means the standard deviation in 100 games is less than 4.1 >> >>being almost 5 standrad deviation give a very small probability and I am sure >>that it is less than 0.1% and I believe that it is even less than 0.01% >> >>If you get 70-30 in a match of 100 games you can be practically sure that the >>winner is better. >> >>Uri
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