Author: Ed Schröder
Date: 06:39:45 11/17/01
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On November 17, 2001 at 08:28:51, Albert Silver wrote: >On November 17, 2001 at 01:08:03, Ed Schröder wrote: > >>It all will depend of what MS wants, a few scenarios: >> >>#1. A default chess program inside a newer OS, patience alike. Any reasonable >>amateur program plus some reasonable graphics will do. >> >>#2. Create a competitive chess program and sell it separately. First thing >>they need is a top engine programmer but that is just the smallest problem. >>The main problem is making the interface, it has to be a gamer outlook with >>fancy graphics, sounds, an own server etc. It has to be at least competitive >>with ChessMaster in this area. Chances MS is going to do that all by themselves >>is exactly zero. Just ask John Merlino how many man-years work is invested >>in the current ChessMaster, my best guess: 40-50 man-years. >> >>#3. Create the strongest around. MS needs special hardware, an external >>piece of hardware connected to USB could do the trick. Hsu comes to mind. >>The interface hasn't to be as fancy as in option-2, nevertheless MS has to >>buy it. >> >>Looking at these 3 scenario's my best speculation is: >> >>Option-1 : 75% >>Option-2 : 5% >>Option-3 : 20% >> >>Ed > >My first reaction was to spurn the much lower percentage of option-2 compared to >option-3, but your mention of Hsu is spot on. MS would easily have the means to >turn Hsu's DB-on-a-card dream into reality. *Easily*, plus it's all there just >waiting for a buyer with a big enough wallet, and there's little chance they >wouldn't be the king of the hill in a flash. Don't hold your breath, option-3 means hardware, expensive hardware. How many people will buy? 20.000? 100.000 maximum. Those are no MS figures. I remember the talks in Holland with Philips in the 80's, they surely were interested but in the end said no because the expected turnover was below 100 million dutch guilders (about $40M) and they do not start a new product line below that kind of money :) So if MS will do it, it will be an issue of image mainly. Ed >In fact, if MS *did* opt for this direction and made big bucks off of it, it >would be a significant kick in IBM's teeth. Yet another example where IBM's lack >of vision helped fill MS's bank account. > > Albert
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