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Subject: Re: new chessbits rating list

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 18:52:11 11/29/01

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On November 25, 2001 at 04:49:50, Mogens Larsen wrote:
[snip]
>I referred to your method of avoiding modifcations, not CMFun in particular.
>However, allowing mulitiple versions of some engines for subjective reasons
>yields an unfair and skewed list. That is a fact. Whether it is uninteresting or
>not is up to the reader.

Just to clarify for people who are not keen on statistical stuff, imagine the
following (exaggerated) scenario.

We have two engines, x and y, of equal ability.

We enter x one million times, tweaking some parameter each time.  The overall
strength changes a few ELO +/- each time, but the average is about equal.

We enter y one time, with all default parameters.

What are the odds of an 'x' clone winning?  999999/1000000 = 99.9999%
What are the odds of y winning? 0.0001% {y, equal in ability, has no real chance
to win}

The greater number of times a cloned program enters, the higher the probability
that one of the clones will win the contest.



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