Author: Mogens Larsen
Date: 05:11:20 11/30/01
Go up one level in this thread
On November 29, 2001 at 21:52:11, Dann Corbit wrote:
>Just to clarify for people who are not keen on statistical stuff, imagine the
>following (exaggerated) scenario.
>
>We have two engines, x and y, of equal ability.
>
>We enter x one million times, tweaking some parameter each time. The overall
>strength changes a few ELO +/- each time, but the average is about equal.
>
>We enter y one time, with all default parameters.
>
>What are the odds of an 'x' clone winning? 999999/1000000 = 99.9999%
>What are the odds of y winning? 0.0001% {y, equal in ability, has no real chance
>to win}
>
>The greater number of times a cloned program enters, the higher the probability
>that one of the clones will win the contest.
That was the exact meaning of my message. Thank you for making it painstakingly
obvious.
Another exercise for the curious would be to check what engines benefit from
four Fritz 6 versions and which don't. The stats are there, so it shouldn't be
that difficult.
Regards,
Mogens
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