Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 07:58:24 06/09/98
Go up one level in this thread
On June 09, 1998 at 02:38:56, Ed Schröder wrote: >>Posted by Christophe Theron on June 09, 1998 at 00:55:16: > >>>Say one game takes 60 hours = 2.5 days. 30 games will take 75 days. >>>Using 2 autoplayer pairs the total NPS tournament would take 30-40 >>>days which looks pretty acceptable to me. > >>>Interesting enough? > >>>Alternatives? > >>>Or better play the normal (10 game) 40/2:00 matches? > >>>- Ed - > >>Sorry Ed, I think this is a complete waste of time. > >>But maybe this has to be done one time, just to verify that we learn >>nothing from such matches, and then definitely throw away such ideas. > >Why do you think the NPS tournament is a waste of time? > >My view, in total 30 >>4:30 vs 45:00<< games will be played. Imagine >the following possible scores: > >a) 4:30 vs 45:00 5 - 25 --> Speed is decisive. >b) 4:30 vs 45:00 10 - 20 --> My expectation. >c) 4:30 vs 45:00 13 - 17 --> Speed is not decisive. > >>Please keep on doing the good work on normal 40/2:00. > >I will, I am expecting a positive answer for sponsoring CCL. This >means I will get 6 top Pc's for the use of CCL. I then can move CCL >to these six machines (so more games) and use the PII-266/64 I am >using now for CCL for the NPS tournament. > >- Ed - > > >> Christophe I think the result will be interesting. For years, we've heard Larry Kaufman's "doubling = 70 rating points." at a 10 x speed, that is over 3 doublings, which should produce at least a 200 rating point improvement, if Larry's formula is anywhere near correct. And this means that a 30 game match ought to end up at 24-6 or so. I think it will be interesting to see if it does. the only flaw is that there are *two* degrees of freedom in the statistical analysis. speed *and* different program opponents. It would also be useful to play X vs X' where X' is simply X with 10x the time per move. Then the only variable is time, and you need fewer games to produce an acceptable error. But handicap games between different programs will also be interesting...
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