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Subject: Re: CCL results 08-06-98

Author: Ed Schröder

Date: 14:02:51 06/09/98

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>Posted by Christophe Theron on June 09, 1998 at 14:01:59:

>>My view, in total 30 >>4:30 vs 45:00<< games will be played. Imagine
>>the following possible scores:

>>a) 4:30 vs 45:00   5 - 25    --> Speed is decisive.
>>b) 4:30 vs 45:00  10 - 20    --> My expectation.
>>c) 4:30 vs 45:00  13 - 17    --> Speed is not decisive.


>I you use the top programs currently competing in CCL, my bet is that
>you'll get the 5 - 25 result.

It's an old discussion. My view is that going from 5 to 6 ply is a lot
more worth than going from ply 12 to 13 and going from 12 to 13 ply will
gain more elo than going from ply 18 to 19.

IMO there comes a time (say about 10 years?) that a doubling of
processor speed will gain only 2-5 elo points. How much worth is
a doubling these days? A NPS tournament can reveal something about
this.

My speculation is 10-20 as the current top programs at such fast
machines are already so good that they can't be slaughtered with
your suggested 5-25.

- Ed -


>This just will tell us nothing. I suppose you think differently. So can
>you please explain what kind of lesson you are expecting from this?

>But OK, as I said, this has to be done at least one time.

>And BTW I hope to be wrong. I like to be surprised!

>    Christophe



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