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Subject: Re: why not 40 games

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 16:06:16 01/07/02

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On January 07, 2002 at 18:39:44, Rajen Gupta wrote:

>i think to be fair to all programmes every match on the ssdfshould be of roughly
>40 games as otherwise it is easy to skew the ssdf results in favour of or
>against a particular programme.i fail to see the logic of terminating the
>testing so early unless it is a policy decision that will affect all matches
>equally.

It won't skew the results, except that it will make a wider error bar.

You might think, "I'll play a single game against the top SSDF program and then
if I win, I will stop right there."
That would indeed give you a high ELO rating, but the error bar would be
infinite.  In order to have an acceptable error bar, you have to play a lot of
games and this will level out the ELO rating.  The system is self-correcting.

You might have a good run of chance against opponent 'A', and also against 'B'
but you won't keep having fortunate outcomes again and again and again unless
you really are strong.

Playing a large number of games against varied opponents brings the size of the
error bar down quickly.



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