Author: Antonio Dieguez
Date: 15:00:49 01/08/02
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On January 07, 2002 at 20:24:01, Hans van der Zijden wrote: >You are in a quiz and you have to choose one of three doors. Behind one of the >doors is a nice price (lets say an AMD 2000+ with all the chessprograms you >want, to make it a computerchess topic). The other doors are empty. When you >tell the quizmaster your choice he opens one of the other doors which is empty. >Now he is giving you the option to change your mind. Should you stick with your >first choice, should you change or doesn't it make a difference? > >If you don't know this riddle, try to find the solution before reading on. > >I told a friend this riddle and she is still convinced that it doesn't matter if >you change or not. She agrees that you have 1/3 chance getting it right the >first guess, but after one (empty) door is opened she keeps saying there are 2 >doors left, so now you have 1/2 chance if you stick to your choice. I try to >explain it to her in all the ways I could think of, but she is as stubborn as 3 >mules. I also played this situation 30 times with and 30 times without changing. >She thinks I was lucky and the random die showed too many times the number 1. >Anyone an idea how to explain this to her. use transparent glasses with something inside, and forget numbers.
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