Author: Fernando Villegas
Date: 15:25:51 01/08/02
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A brilliant case of counter-intuitive thinking. The most interesting part is , nevertheless, to explain why the common sense at first glance, like your friend, believes the chance is the same all the time The trick, of course, is that common sense does not see that if you stick to yout first choice after the guy opened a door, you stick with the first kind of bet at 1/3 chances. But If you change your mind, you get a better 2/3 situation because it is like you have been allowed to do TWO bets, one of them performed by the other guy. Here lay the cunning part of the riddle, as much you does not se at the first lance that the wizard is like yoursef in disguise. My best Fernando
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