Author: Colin Frayn
Date: 03:54:35 01/09/02
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On January 07, 2002 at 20:24:01, Hans van der Zijden wrote: >I told a friend this riddle and she is still convinced that it doesn't matter if >you change or not. She agrees that you have 1/3 chance getting it right the >first guess, but after one (empty) door is opened she keeps saying there are 2 >doors left, so now you have 1/2 chance if you stick to your choice. I try to >explain it to her in all the ways I could think of, but she is as stubborn as 3 >mules. I also played this situation 30 times with and 30 times without changing. >She thinks I was lucky and the random die showed too many times the number 1. >Anyone an idea how to explain this to her. I tried to convince my dad of this and I ended up writing a program to run the test 1 million times, and sure enough, changing the door got about 2/3 correct. In fact, when I was writing the program, it became even more obvious that this was the correct answer and I found that, after optimisation, I was almost writing a program to print out "2/3". I suggest you try the same and show your friend (but do it properly). Cheers, Col
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