Author: Ricardo Gibert
Date: 05:24:39 01/09/02
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On January 09, 2002 at 06:54:35, Colin Frayn wrote: >On January 07, 2002 at 20:24:01, Hans van der Zijden wrote: > >>I told a friend this riddle and she is still convinced that it doesn't matter if >>you change or not. She agrees that you have 1/3 chance getting it right the >>first guess, but after one (empty) door is opened she keeps saying there are 2 >>doors left, so now you have 1/2 chance if you stick to your choice. I try to >>explain it to her in all the ways I could think of, but she is as stubborn as 3 >>mules. I also played this situation 30 times with and 30 times without changing. >>She thinks I was lucky and the random die showed too many times the number 1. >>Anyone an idea how to explain this to her. > >I tried to convince my dad of this and I ended up writing a program to run the >test 1 million times, and sure enough, changing the door got about 2/3 correct. >In fact, when I was writing the program, it became even more obvious that this >was the correct answer and I found that, after optimisation, I was almost >writing a program to print out "2/3". I suggest you try the same and show your >friend (but do it properly). > >Cheers, >Col http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.monty.hall.html http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html
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