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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Graham Laight

Date: 05:09:58 01/16/02

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On January 16, 2002 at 07:49:25, Albert Silver wrote:

>On January 16, 2002 at 07:41:28, Graham Laight wrote:
>
>>It has occurred to me that it is wrong to evaluate a position in terms of
>>relative pawns (the "de facto" standard - whereby an evaluation of 2 means that
>>you're approximately the equivalent of 2 pawns ahead).
>>
>>This means that many aspects of evaluation have to be squeezed into a dimension
>>which is not appropriate at all.
>>
>>A better way would be to evaluate "winning probability". If a position was a
>>draw, the value would be 0.50 (or 50%). If the player should win 3 out of 4
>>times, the eval should be 75%. If the player must win from here, then the
>>evaluation should be 100%.
>>
>>It seems strange when you think about it that all programmers have chosen to
>>adopt the traditional "pawn equivalence" standard.
>>
>>-g
>
>Not so strange considering that chess is a game of absolutes, whether we know
>them or not. A positions is either a win (with best play), a draw, or a loss.
>How are you going to estimate how many times a player _should_ win? -->
>
>Hmmm... Normally, I'd say John is going to win this, but having seen him drink 5
>beers during lunch shortly before the game, I'd say he only has a 60% chance....
>:-)
>
>                                         Albert

I don't say that the evaluations would be more "accurate" - but I do say that
the number produced, accurate or not, would be on a more sensible scale.

-g



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