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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Jeroen van Dorp

Date: 05:22:22 01/16/02

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In principle the pawn value evaluation is a good one and basically the same as
yours.

If you have one pawn extra, and it's not on the a or h-file, you have won -
technically. In principle you can swap all pieces, and remain with an extra,
promotable pawn, which is won.

If you're behind a pawn.... well..... okay....

But this scale gives *two* kinds of information: the higher the pawn value
advantage, the higher the change the party in the plus will be able to be left
with sufficient plus material to win. So higher evaluation - higher win chances.

It secondly tells the opponent exactly how much material he as to gain to
balance the situtation, and the winning party how much material he might be
offering to get to the quickest "get rich" scheme on the board. After all he can
give away everything, as long as he sticks with one promotable pawn extra: the
minimum requirement for winning is enough after all.

I guess your validation of the situation is the statistical approach: "how much
change is there to win the game" is the same as "taking 1000 games, you will
probably win x<a<y games and lose 1000-(x<a<y). It gives you no other
information than that, and you need to know how to win in *this* game, not what
percentage of games you will eventually win.

I think the pawn value system is very human friendly :))

Nice subject, very interesting thoughts.

J.



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