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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 08:43:59 01/16/02

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On January 16, 2002 at 07:41:28, Graham Laight wrote:

>It has occurred to me that it is wrong to evaluate a position in terms of
>relative pawns (the "de facto" standard - whereby an evaluation of 2 means that
>you're approximately the equivalent of 2 pawns ahead).
>
>This means that many aspects of evaluation have to be squeezed into a dimension
>which is not appropriate at all.
>
>A better way would be to evaluate "winning probability". If a position was a
>draw, the value would be 0.50 (or 50%). If the player should win 3 out of 4
>times, the eval should be 75%. If the player must win from here, then the
>evaluation should be 100%.
>
>It seems strange when you think about it that all programmers have chosen to
>adopt the traditional "pawn equivalence" standard.
>
>-g


It is harder to do otherwise.  IE KPP vs K is winning, except for some rare
cases, while KR vs KB is drawn.

It would be very hard to translate some sort of material imbalance into a
winning percentage.  As a general rule, the more material you are ahead, the
better your chances, with some exceptions that many engines know about...




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