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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Ricardo Gibert

Date: 10:13:17 01/16/02

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On January 16, 2002 at 12:56:06, James Swafford wrote:

>On January 16, 2002 at 07:41:28, Graham Laight wrote:
>
>I don't have time right now to read all the previous posts, but
>I'd like to point out something I thought interesting when
>playing with TDLeaf...
>
>Temporal difference algorithms needs exactly what you mention -
>a probability (or a certainty factor I guess) of winning, and
>it needs to be in the interval -1 .. 1.  Of course -1 = loss,
>0 = draw, 1 = win.  .9 is 'almost certainly a win', etc.
>
>You can scale the raw scores from your evaluator and plug
>that into a hyperbolic tangent function, and the result of that
>will be in that closed interval.  What I think is so neat about
>using a hyerbolic tangent is that it predicts +5 pawns to
>be almost as sure to win as +9 pawns or +15 pawns.  If I get
>a chance later and you're interested I can throw up a little
>chart... it's interesting when you think about it.  Say a
>1 pawn advantage yields a certainty factor of .74 (I'm making that
>up).  A 2 pawn advantage might yield a cf of .89, then 3 .95, etc.
>The 'obviousness' starts to set it.
>
>Ok, enough rambling... I've got to get going.

What you propose is a tranformation that will not cause an engine to select a
different move that it would have without the tranformation being applied. It
burns up cpu time with no benefit. Fine for TD, but no help in a regular
program.

>
>--
>James
>
>
>>It has occurred to me that it is wrong to evaluate a position in terms of
>>relative pawns (the "de facto" standard - whereby an evaluation of 2 means that
>>you're approximately the equivalent of 2 pawns ahead).
>>
>>This means that many aspects of evaluation have to be squeezed into a dimension
>>which is not appropriate at all.
>>
>>A better way would be to evaluate "winning probability". If a position was a
>>draw, the value would be 0.50 (or 50%). If the player should win 3 out of 4
>>times, the eval should be 75%. If the player must win from here, then the
>>evaluation should be 100%.
>>
>>It seems strange when you think about it that all programmers have chosen to
>>adopt the traditional "pawn equivalence" standard.
>>
>>-g



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