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Subject: Re: Evaluation Should Be Winning Probability - Not Pawns

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:22:33 01/16/02

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On January 16, 2002 at 22:38:01, Ricardo Gibert wrote:

>
>Special graph? You said, "It could be linear" *and* you said it would be a
>"straight line", so resorting to using soemething like a graph with a
>logarithmic (or whatever) scale on one side does help. You would still need to
>redefine the terms "linear" or "straight line" to make what you said to work. As
>for whether it is 2 or 1 pawns that is equivalent to a 75% WE, I'll let you take
>your pick. It makes no difference.


I tend to agree.  I never said it _was_ a linear function.  I said it
_could be_ a linear function, perhaps with a slope of something other
than 45 degrees.  Didn't say anything else.  Didn't intend to say anything
else.  Clearly beyond a certain point it can't be linear as if I am 2 queens
ahead my winning chances are no worse than when I am 3 queens ahead...

But in the "reality segment" of this, it might or might not be linear, I don't
know.  IE the probability of winning when 2 pawns ahead might well be some
constant times the probability of winning when 1 pawn ahead...  and so forth.
Haven't given it much thought.  Don't really intend to since the material +
positional scores are more straightforward to think about...

Although obviously my program _does_ have some "probability of winning" stuff
in the evaluation so that it knows that KRB vs KR is not winning, for example...




>
>But it would
>>be a pointless exercise, because if that can be done, then it would say that
>>one could be derived from the other, and therefore the original score is
>>"good enough"...



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