Author: J. Wesley Cleveland
Date: 17:42:29 01/25/02
Go up one level in this thread
On January 25, 2002 at 17:53:39, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On January 25, 2002 at 17:49:13, Albert Silver wrote:
>[snip]
>>I disagree. Two things: Heinz's study showed that adding plies doesn't linearly
>>add strength. Second, I think the comparison with Kasparov is amiss. Kasparov
>>does far more than calculate plies, and he would bring that with him in any
>>game. You can take a dry middlegame with no magic ruptures or sacrfices, and
>>Kasparov might tell you in a second that it is a draw. Why? Not because he
>>calculated it to the last ply, but because his judgement and vision allow him to
>>make that assessment. I do not believe for one second that perfect play would
>>suddenly change that. The perfect player might know that h4 and an enormous
>>number of useless moves can or will lead to a loss, but that doesn't mean
>>Kasparov will play them.
>
>I think it's hero worship. If you take a 2400 player against Kasparov, and the
>2400 player is going to get slaughtered for the very reasons that you mention.
>If you take a 3200 player against Kasparov, Kasparov will look just as bad as
>the 2400 player did. Deep Blue, the second version, made Kasparov look almost
>human. A computer that searched 500 times deeper would humble Kasparov.
^^^
You mean a program that searches about 7500 ply deep ?
> I believe it would win 1000 out of 1000 games with no draws.
Unfortunately, the ELO system breaks down for 100% wins. Let's take it in
smaller steps. Assume an ordinary superhuman player, 3500 ELO - Kasparov could
expect to get 1 draw every 50 games. Do you think that this player would also
have no chance against a perfect player ? If so, assume a top superhuman player,
ELO 4200. The ordinary superhuman player could expect to get 1 draw every 50
games against her. Do you think that *this* player would also have no chance
against a perfect player ?
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