Author: Uri Blass
Date: 21:29:02 01/25/02
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On January 25, 2002 at 17:46:39, Dann Corbit wrote: >On January 25, 2002 at 17:39:19, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On January 25, 2002 at 17:31:56, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On January 25, 2002 at 17:25:56, Albert Silver wrote: >>>[snip] >>>>I don't think that's necessary, unless by playing nearly perfectly you just mean >>>>avoiding losing moves. The way you put it, it sounds as if there are very few >>>>non-losing moves (i.e. a narrow road to avoid losing against perfect play) >>>>whereas I believe there are many many roads to a draw that even perfect play >>>>from the other side would not easily avoid. >>> >>>Perhaps. Imagine this: >>> >>>How many times will a 5 year old, who correctly knows the rules of chess but >>>never sees beyond 2 plies do against Kasparov? I submit that they will never >>>win or draw, for all practical purposes. >>> >>>A perfect player verses Kasparov should be far more dominating than that. >> >>I disagree here. >>I believe that the difference kasparov and a 5 year old is bigger than the >>difference between the perfect player and kasparov. > >A child that sees 2 plies compares with Kasparov's 14 plies is 1/7th of the >depth. > >From the Chess FAQ: >Subject: [24] Trivia >How long is the longest possible chess game? >The basic idea is a player may claim a draw if fifty moves elapse without a >capture or a pawn advance. Ignoring the special cases where more than 50 moves >are allowed by the rules, the answer is after Black's 5948th move, White is able >to claim a draw. The simple calculation is (<Pawn_moves + - + ><Drawing_interval_grace_period) * <Drawing_interval, or (16*6 + 30 - 8 + 1) * 50 >= 5950; we're able to trim two moves from this total by observing that sequences >of Captures/Pawn_moves must have (at least) 4 alternations between the two >players. > >That means the perfect player can see (5948 * 2)+1 plies = 11897 plies. >That's a ratio of 11897/14 = 850/1 > >Have you ever watched two programs that play against each other and one is >constantly getting outsearched by a mere 4 plies? It's not a pretty sight. I believe in diminishing returns and I believe that practically 11897 plies is totally equal to 2000 plies and is equal or only slightly better than 200 plies. I guess that 2000 plies against 200 plies is going to be a draw in most openings if not in all of them. I believe that chess is a draw and that there are many sound openings in the opening book when the sides did not do a mistake. Uri
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