Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 05:56:57 01/26/02
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On January 26, 2002 at 08:54:10, Sune Fischer wrote: >>You're presuming that anything other than one move, the best move, will lose >>forcibly to best play. I believe that more than one move is available to a >>non-loss thus perfect play would be often a flip of the coin between a few >>(perhaps three as I hypothesized in another post in the thread) moves. I have >>seen no evidence to suggest there is only one path to a non-loss and that a >>single path of perfect play is needed to avoid it. Everything we know whether >>from personal research or from the current tablebases suggests there are several >>paths. If this were accepted to be true, the question would be whether the 2800 >>player is incapable of hitting on _one_ of these non-losing moves (according to >>perfect play). >> >> Albert > >You could interpet in an similar way; there is a 50% chance of the 2800 chooses >a move that is *good enough*. >It was just an estimate, probably way off :) > >Suppose that a *correct* move is done with 95% certainty (on average) and that >the average game length is only 60 moves, then he has a 0.95^60 = 4.6% chance of >a draw! > >This is perhaps more realistic? > >-S. Some one suggested an actual test of this percentile by letting a 2800 play against the table bases, not a bad idea I think. -S.
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