Author: David Rasmussen
Date: 13:02:48 01/27/02
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On January 27, 2002 at 13:08:38, Frank Phillips wrote: >>I you flip a coin 10 times and it turns out to be 3 heads and 7 tails, does that >>mean you expect the same result in the next 10 tosses or du you conclude more >>tests are needed? >> >>-S. > >Of course not, because I know that in a fair coin I would expect 50-50 on >average and know that 10-0 could occur. But if I had a choice of another to >coin to toss (for my life say) that I knew was fair I would chose that, based on >the information available. OK. For your life, you have to choose between two cases (with the above coin): 1. You think that the next 10000 flips will be within 10% of 3000 heads and 7000 tails 2. You think that the next 10000 flips will be within 10% of 5000 heads and 5000 tails What would you choose? _This_ is an analogy to what is happening here. Would you bet, on your life, from Quarks performance in CCT4, that it's general rating is close to it's performance rating, or would you rather bet that it was lucky? I'm not saying it was lucky. I think Quark may be very strong. I am just saying I wouldn't conclude anything from so few games. /David
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