Author: Albert Silver
Date: 14:07:26 01/27/02
Go up one level in this thread
On January 27, 2002 at 15:13:28, Peter Hegger wrote:
>On January 26, 2002 at 12:52:34, Albert Silver wrote:
>
>>On January 26, 2002 at 12:29:50, Janosch Zwerensky wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>>And finally you have a miserable 3 moves that don't lose forcibly.
>>>
>>>The problem is that often two of these three will give the opponent the
>>>opportunity to create lots of pressure in the long run. "Creating lots of
>>>pressure" here means that the opponent can steer the game into a direction where
>>>less than three correct moves are available per ply for the human.
>>
>>If it gets reduced to only 2 or 3 then possibly, but that still doesn't change
>>the probability. Also, it most likely will be much more than 3 moves in most
>>positions. In an equal position I'd be very surprised if there were only 3
>>non-losing moves. That would be insane and extremely unlikely. That would mean
>>that only 3 plans or move-orders are possible and that don't lose. Sounds like a
>>very different game than the one I know. I don't see how or why the balance of
>>the position could be so delicate or compromised.
>>
>
>The percentile of "correct", meaning perfect winning or drawing moves at any
>one point in the game, must also move in a non-linear fashion from move 1
>onwards.
>Hypothetically speaking :the perfect 32 man tablebase would know that after 1d4
>...d5 2.c4 that 2...cxd4 or 2...nf6 was losing by force with black. Would any
>entity of the present, human or silicon see such a thing? Of course not.
I don't think ANY of the major opening lines are forcibly losing so early on. I
think the game is far more flexible and forgiving than that. Some lines may
narrow down (less non-losing moves available against perfect play) earlier than
others, but nothing such as you describe in the first 2 moves. Just MHO.
Albert
>When
>the pieces have started to disappear and the chances of getting a krkr ending
>are closer, of course the percentile of correct moves increases. But I submit
>that the chances of the imperfect player geting to this ending are slim to nil
>because of the lower chance of getting a positive hit in the 32man TB early on.
>Peter
>
>have multiplied the chances of finding correct moves are much higher.
>I submit that as long as
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