Author: Uri Blass
Date: 05:06:38 01/28/02
Go up one level in this thread
On January 28, 2002 at 07:35:13, Amir Ban wrote: >On January 28, 2002 at 06:42:25, Albert Silver wrote: > >>On January 28, 2002 at 06:33:26, Amir Ban wrote: >> >>>On January 28, 2002 at 06:12:53, Ed Schröder wrote: >>> >>>>>Will TACTIC's eventually REFUTE! Positional play? >>>> >>>>In the end yes. >>>> >>>>It is my (new) opinion that the nature of chess is just search. >>>> >>>>Elo progress of (professional) chess programs... >>>> >>>>1990 - elo 2000 (average depth 6-8) (TC 40/2h) >>>>1995 - elo 2300 (average depth 8-10) >>>>2000 - elo 2500 (average depth 11-13) >>>>2002 - elo 2600 (average depth 12-14) >>>> >>> >>>This begs the question, because the programs are newer and play positionally >>>different. Will a 1990/1995 program perform 2600+ on today's hardware ? >>>Doubtful. >>> >>> >>>>No way to stop it. >>>> >>>>No suprise Kasparov lost against Deep Blue. >>> >>>It was a surprise because he is clearly better. >>> >>>> >>>>The sad future: it will be in the headlines when a grandmaster occasionally will >>>>win from a computer. >>>> >>> >>>If this will happen due to positionally outplaying will you also consider it sad >>>? >>> >>>Amir >> >>I don't think he meant it would be sad they won, but that this would be >>considered news. In any case, I'm afraid I agree with him on the nature of >>chess. I think that positional play is just extremely deep and refined tactical >>play. Since we approach them differently, we regard them as different, but that >>is still how I regard them. Notice how already some elements of knowledge that >>were necessary in older programs are removed as the search makes up for it. >>Naturally this isn't the whole trend, but it does say something. >> > >I think GM's will still be beating Genius 2 and Fritz 3 in 2010. 1)Note that it is possible that GM's are going to play better in 2010 because they will learn from good software to teach them to play better so they may beat also the top programs of today on the hardware of today in 2010. 2)Another interesting question is if the top programs of today can beat Genius2 or Fritz3 on hardware of 2010 without special preperation. It is possible to check it even today by giving Genius2 or Fritz3 some hours per move on the hardware of today when you give Junior only some minutes per move on the hardware of today. 3)I hope that Genius2 or Fritz3 do not have an ugly bug at long time control. I do not know if they were tested at long time control on the hardware of today so I am not sure about it and I know that even today there are cases when programmers make assumption based on the hardware when they know that the program may have problems at long time control that do not happen in normal games. Example: Crafty is using the number of nodes per move for the order of moves and it assumes that the number of nodes is smaller than 2^32 If the number of nodes is buigger than 2^32 the order of moves may be wrong. It is almost not important today even if you give crafty some hours because the wrong order is only in the first ply but it may be more important if you give Crafty of today some hours in 2010. Uri
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