Author: Angrim
Date: 18:10:20 01/28/02
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On January 26, 2002 at 19:36:03, Jesper Antonsson wrote: >On January 25, 2002 at 17:25:56, Albert Silver wrote: >>The way you put it, it sounds as if there are very few >>non-losing moves (i.e. a narrow road to avoid losing against perfect play) >>whereas I believe there are many many roads to a draw that even perfect play >>from the other side would not easily avoid. > >Well, assume that chess is a draw and that in each position in the drawn part of >the game tree, there is four moves that keep the draw. If you have to play >randomly for, say, fifty moves before the game is settled, the likelyhood that >you keep the draw against perfect play is (4/36)^50 = 2*10^-46%. Not very good >chances, eh? But on the other hand, how easy is it for a super GM to always play >one of the four moves for 50 moves? If the likelyhood of him choosing the wrong >move is just 5% per move, he'll still lose 8% of the time. But I think chess is Odds of holding the draw would be (0.95)^50=7.7% so he would lose 92.3% No comment on the assumptions, just the math :) Angrim >harder than that, and that GMs would almost never be able to draw a perfect >player, even as white. > >/Jesper
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