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Subject: Re: Mathematical impossibilities regarding Deep Blue statements by Bob

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:21:35 01/30/02

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On January 30, 2002 at 12:52:14, Ed Schröder wrote:

>On January 30, 2002 at 09:43:49, Vincent Diepeveen wrote:
>
>>Hello,
>>
>>I would like to adress some major nonsense about search depth
>>deep blue.
>>
>>First of all, we know that deep blue was doing only fullwidth
>>with loads of extensions.
>>
>>a) 12(6) doesn't mean they searched 18 ply. It means they searched
>>   12 plies fullwidth from which 6 ply in hardware
>
>Agreed Vincent. 18 plies brute force is impossible. 12 plies brute force fits.
>
>Ed
>



based on what?

Cray Blitz, using null-move R=1, non-recursive (one null move along any
path, period, which made the search go about 25% faster overall was quite
capable of searching 12 plies.  It searched 10 plies at 200K nodes per
second.  DB was only 1000 times faster.  Could it _really_ only search
2 plies deeper?

I don't think so...



>
>
>>Nevertheless Bob again claims it is 18 ply fullwidth. Note that he
>>bases his claim on an EMAILED and not PUBLISHED statement from a
>>non-programmer who said it was Deep Thought printing stuff out
>>like that. Note that the only published depth is 12 ply in IEEE99,
>>an OFFICIAL document.
>>
>>Let's assume Bob as only defender from IBM is right,
>>let's do some math on the MINIMUM number of nodes
>>they would need for a 18 ply search.
>>
>>Also we know they didn't use a hashtable in hardware.
>>
>>It is not amazing to see that in the complex middlegame Deep Blue searched
>>just as deep as in the far endgame, about 11(6) to 12(6).
>>
>>That means Knuth's lemma is of course working for them, otherwise
>>they would have searched many plies deeper in endgames.
>>
>>Knuths lemma says that you need about the square root of the average
>>number of moves for even depths.
>>
>>Now everyone can easily figure out what the average number of legal moves
>>is (considering they extend checks so these positions do not count)
>>
>>This was measured by me at 40. There i am the only person here
>>who recently
>>measured this, the previous measurement of 35 was INCLUDING checks
>>and is like 50 years old, and was just saying something about
>>positions in GM games,
>>it is obviously logical that 40 is pretty true in the middlegame.
>>
>>Note that
>>in this math we assume a PERFECT move ordering, we do not count
>>the huge number of nodes singular extensions need and we do forget
>>the fact that deep blue proved in the games tactical weaker than
>>crafty would be at 15 ply even, whereas the truth is that they DID
>>do some extensions of course, it's even mentionned that in the software
>>part they did do 'dangerous extensions'.
>>
>>For a 18 ply fullwidth search: squareroot (40^18) = 40^9
>> = 262,144,000,000,000
>>
>>Now we know Deep Blue ran at 200M nodes a second, which from
>>hardware viewpoint is an incredible achievement and the only
>>thing IBM cared for. IBM *never* said something about searching
>>deeper.
>>
>>So for a 18 ply search the theoretical minimum would have been
>>(assuming 100% speedup from deep blue, whereas in reality they
>>wrote down they got 20% out of it this was published in IEEE99
>>by Hsu):
>>
>>262144000000000 / 200,000,000 nodes a second = 1310720 seconds
>>needed to get 18 ply
>>
>>We definitely need to note that in 1995 not a single program with mobility
>>did get *near* 11 or 12 ply at 3 minutes a move, not even WITH nullmove.
>>
>>Even in 1997 it was a pain to reach 11 to 12 ply with just nullmove for
>>programs with mobility.
>>
>>Only years after that things happened soon and fast, but a single email
>>from a person who didn't make the chip is quoted by Bob and believed
>>by some idiots here who are bad in math.
>>
>>18 ply fullwidth without hashtable is unreachable CCC audience, with
>>nullmove things change rapid however. This is why nullmove earns the
>>nobel prize and the defense of deep blue must admit that in 2002
>>it is hard to say that a program that just searched fullwidth and
>>which was promoted only by nodes a second, that it got 11 to 12 ply
>>and not 17 to 18. 12 ply is in fact already a real good search
>>depth fullwidth, if i let diep search fullwidth WITH hashtables and
>>singular extensions, then i don't even get over 10 ply in fact.
>>
>>The reason is real easy. I do my singular extensions also 4 ply from the
>>leafs, whereas DB 'only' did it 7 ply from the leafs. If never forward
>>pruning is used (like nullmove R=3 as i use in DIEP) it is simply
>>impossible to explain the huge problems singular extensions cause.
>>
>>Best regards,
>>Vincent Diepeveen



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