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Subject: Re: Mathematical impossibilities regarding Deep Blue statements by Bob

Author: Torstein Hall

Date: 07:32:40 01/31/02

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On January 31, 2002 at 08:21:43, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 31, 2002 at 07:56:21, Albert Silver wrote:
>
>>>Say 200K is good for 8 plies average, being 1000 x faster with a branching
>>>factor of 4 gives: 4x4x4x4x4 = 1024 -> 5 extra plies.
>>>
>>>So with 200M NPS you might be able to search 13 plies brute force in best case.
>>>
>>>Subtract a couple of plies (1 to 3) for the way DB did singular extensions and
>>>the picture fits, that is: DB was searching 10-12 plies as the log files
>>>confirm.
>>>
>>>This 12(6) isn't 18, you must have misunderstood its meaning.
>>>
>>>Ed
>>
>>I will add this, as I cannot comment on the numbers and math presented. I have a
>>lot of trouble believing Kasparov would go down to a program hitting only 10-12
>>plies in a 6-game 40/2h match. Either it is amazingly smart with a super eval,
>>which all evidence suggests it had serious tuning issues with, or it is doing
>>some very deep calculating.
>>
>>                                      Albert
>
>I have a lot of trouble to believe that they searched more than 11-12 plies
>after reading the following post:
>http://www.icdchess.com/forums/1/message.shtml?210978
>
>I do not believe that their evaluation was superior relative to today programs
>and the opposite seems to be correct.
>I also do not believe that their 10-12 plies are better than 14-15 plies of
>today programs.
>
>I believe that today programs have good chances to beat kasparov(1997) in a 6
>game match.
>Unfortunatley kasparov knows more than he knew in 1997 so a match between
>kasaprov(1997) and the top programs of today is not going to happen.
>
>Uri

I think we will see the value of this words after Kramnik - Fritz match, if it
ever will happen. (Kramnik is about the same level as Kasparov, remember.) If
Fritz wins that match, you may be right, but I belive Kramnik will crush little
Fritzie badly.

Torstein





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