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Subject: Re: Mathematical impossibilities regarding Deep Blue statements by Bob

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 08:24:52 01/31/02

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On January 31, 2002 at 10:32:40, Torstein Hall wrote:

>On January 31, 2002 at 08:21:43, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On January 31, 2002 at 07:56:21, Albert Silver wrote:
>>
>>>>Say 200K is good for 8 plies average, being 1000 x faster with a branching
>>>>factor of 4 gives: 4x4x4x4x4 = 1024 -> 5 extra plies.
>>>>
>>>>So with 200M NPS you might be able to search 13 plies brute force in best case.
>>>>
>>>>Subtract a couple of plies (1 to 3) for the way DB did singular extensions and
>>>>the picture fits, that is: DB was searching 10-12 plies as the log files
>>>>confirm.
>>>>
>>>>This 12(6) isn't 18, you must have misunderstood its meaning.
>>>>
>>>>Ed
>>>
>>>I will add this, as I cannot comment on the numbers and math presented. I have a
>>>lot of trouble believing Kasparov would go down to a program hitting only 10-12
>>>plies in a 6-game 40/2h match. Either it is amazingly smart with a super eval,
>>>which all evidence suggests it had serious tuning issues with, or it is doing
>>>some very deep calculating.
>>>
>>>                                      Albert
>>
>>I have a lot of trouble to believe that they searched more than 11-12 plies
>>after reading the following post:
>>http://www.icdchess.com/forums/1/message.shtml?210978
>>
>>I do not believe that their evaluation was superior relative to today programs
>>and the opposite seems to be correct.
>>I also do not believe that their 10-12 plies are better than 14-15 plies of
>>today programs.
>>
>>I believe that today programs have good chances to beat kasparov(1997) in a 6
>>game match.
>>Unfortunatley kasparov knows more than he knew in 1997 so a match between
>>kasaprov(1997) and the top programs of today is not going to happen.
>>
>>Uri
>
>I think we will see the value of this words after Kramnik - Fritz match, if it
>ever will happen. (Kramnik is about the same level as Kasparov, remember.) If
>Fritz wins that match, you may be right, but I belive Kramnik will crush little
>Fritzie badly.
>
>Torstein

I also believe that kramnik can win Fritz but the conditions are not the same.

Kramnik knows too much about Fritz.

The point is that kasparov played against an unknown program in 1997.
I believe that Deep Fritz had good chances to  win against kasparov (1997) when
kasparov could see no information about Deep Fritz.

Uri



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