Author: pavel
Date: 14:37:53 02/02/02
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On February 02, 2002 at 00:59:52, Dann Corbit wrote: >On February 02, 2002 at 00:40:26, pavel wrote: >[snip] >>Ok I perhaps didn't say it the way I wanted to. >>What i wanted to say is that chess games cannot be related to tosing coins, (no >>I didn't mean stats, but tossing coin is what I meant), becase while tossing >>coins there are 2 probabilities, and there is nothing associated with it for a >>certain probability to take place, (why would there be more heads then tails?) >>While is chess this is not the case. > >For every event, the sum of all possibilites is equal to 1. So, for instance, >throwing a penny, we have: >0.5 - epsilon/2 chance of heads. >0.5 - epsilon/2 chance of tails. >epsilon chance of landing on the edge or some other strange thing (vaporized by >a lazer beam for instance). > >With a chess game, we have several possible outcomes: > >The game is won >The game is lost >The game is drawn >The game is discontinued >The game is never started >Something strange we have not thought of. > >Whatever the odds of those things occuring, the sum of their probabilities is >exactly 1. In the even of the 1st three things, there will be a total of one >point awarded. > >[snip] >>Chess games and tossing coins just doesn't seem right. > >All events have some randomness associated with them. A light switch -- we flip >it on and the light goes on (maybe). Maybe the switch goes bad (quite unlikely, >but I had it happen in my house). Maybe the bulb burns out or is burned out. >Maybe the power goes off right at that instant. Probably -- it goes on. But >before the event has occurred or not occurred we really don't know which it will >be (or something else altogether unplanned: There is no lightbulb in the >socket). > >Not only do I think that our events are not predetermined, I think that >(paraphrasing a wise saying): >"Unforseen circumstances happen to us all." Dann I wish I could say, "I understand". But I don't :( As you have probably figured out by now that I suck at stats. but as I said, I don't believe stat has the answer for allproblems, and perhaps not for chess games. I maybe wrong, and I won't argue that I cant be wrong (unlike others) ;) pavs
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