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Subject: Re: OT, about probability and statistics

Author: Roy Eassa

Date: 15:49:58 02/02/02

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On February 02, 2002 at 00:59:52, Dann Corbit wrote:

>All events have some randomness associated with them.  A light switch -- we flip
>it on and the light goes on (maybe).  Maybe the switch goes bad (quite unlikely,
>but I had it happen in my house).  Maybe the bulb burns out or is burned out.
>Maybe the power goes off right at that instant.  Probably -- it goes on.  But
>before the event has occurred or not occurred we really don't know which it will
>be (or something else altogether unplanned: There is no lightbulb in the
>socket).
>
>Not only do I think that our events are not predetermined, I think that
>(paraphrasing a wise saying):
>"Unforseen circumstances happen to us all."


Many of the people with whom I interact react to any low-probability event with
statements like "that's proof that God exists!" or "that's a real miracle!"  I
sometimes say something like "since trillions of events occur every day, even
one-in-a-billion events are not infrequent," but of course I am wasting my
breath.  Once a person is beyond a certain age, they are not likely (there I go
again) to begin seeing things in a probabilistic way.



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