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Subject: Re: OT, about probability and statistics

Author: Roy Eassa

Date: 10:37:15 02/03/02

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On February 02, 2002 at 19:24:18, pavel wrote:

>On February 02, 2002 at 18:49:58, Roy Eassa wrote:
>
>>On February 02, 2002 at 00:59:52, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>All events have some randomness associated with them.  A light switch -- we flip
>>>it on and the light goes on (maybe).  Maybe the switch goes bad (quite unlikely,
>>>but I had it happen in my house).  Maybe the bulb burns out or is burned out.
>>>Maybe the power goes off right at that instant.  Probably -- it goes on.  But
>>>before the event has occurred or not occurred we really don't know which it will
>>>be (or something else altogether unplanned: There is no lightbulb in the
>>>socket).
>>>
>>>Not only do I think that our events are not predetermined, I think that
>>>(paraphrasing a wise saying):
>>>"Unforseen circumstances happen to us all."
>>
>>
>>Many of the people with whom I interact react to any low-probability event with
>>statements like "that's proof that God exists!" or "that's a real miracle!"  I
>>sometimes say something like "since trillions of events occur every day, even
>>one-in-a-billion events are not infrequent," but of course I am wasting my
>>breath.  Once a person is beyond a certain age, they are not likely (there I go
>>again) to begin seeing things in a probabilistic way.
>
>
>A-h!
>I guess I am not old enough ;)
>
>pavs


Can't be too _young_.  The point was that most people become more-or-less
permanently set in their basic views by young adulthood, after which they're
unlikely to change.



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