Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 08:34:12 02/07/02
Go up one level in this thread
On February 07, 2002 at 11:23:56, Sune Fischer wrote: [snip] >I don't understand why this is unsolved, we agree that there is DR in the lower >plies. We can also agree, I think, that DR must become more and more difficult >to measure as the whole thing converges to 50-50%. >Of cause we cannot prove it empiricly without unlimited computing power, but all >indications suggest there is continues DRs (by simple induction). I think that the induction is probably wrong. I suspect at some point, there is not any further diminishing of the return. I base this wild extrapolation on the shape of the graphs and nothing more. One thing for sure, intuition is clearly wrong about it. >Unless chess happens to be tactics limited to ply 25 or something, I don't see >what could upset the obvious conlusion. The current data does not support it (but is very inconclusive). >>Because chess is exponential, in 10 years we will see 5-10 plies deeper (if a >>branching factor of 2 could be achieved it would be 10). > >Yes, and if you want to study the DRs between ply 21-22 and 22-23, it will >require a million games to prove statisticly the expected 0.01% change in >win-lose cases, good luck :) In both studies that I have seen, there is about 13% improvement for each additional ply at the late plies. Consider that this is for EVERY MOVE. I supect that the increase in play strength will be way, way more than 1%. In fact, this is *exactly* what we see with increased ELO due to increased computing horsepower. It seems that we increase 50 ELO or so with each doubling of compute power. If there *WERE* diminishing returns, at some point, compute power increases will have no effect on game play. I don't think that will happen, but I am not basing this guess on hard data. Just an extrapolation from the way my brain fits those graphs that I have seen.
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