Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 08:37:41 02/09/02
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On February 09, 2002 at 11:14:05, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 09, 2002 at 07:44:27, Sune Fischer wrote: > >>On February 09, 2002 at 07:08:35, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>returns. >>> >>>Imagine the following simple game: >>>Every side need to say in it's turn if it resigns or not resign. >>>The game is finished only when one side resigns. >>> >>>If both sides never resign the game is never finished. >>> >>> >>>Imagine the following 3 programs for that simple game: >>> >>> >>>Program A resigns with probability of 10% in every move >>>Program B resigns with probability of 1% in every move >>>Program C never resigns. >>> >>>program C finds better move than program B only in 1% of the cases but in games >>>C always wins against B(B will do a mistake of resigning after enough moves). >> >>No, this is where you get it wrong IMO. >>See C will not _always_ beat B, because the games will end at some point and >>this will give B a winning probability greater than zero. > >Not in the game that I described. > >I agree that at some point there is diminshing returns in chess and I believe >that it happens a lot before chess is solved but the point is that using >statistics about the probability to change your mind is a wrong way to get a >conclusion. Well you mentioned 1%, not me:) Chess _is_ statistics, the weaker side always has a chance, a 2400 player can beat a 2700 player once and a while (why else even play the match?). Maybe I misunderstood your game, in your game it seems B will resign even in a completely drawn positions such as K-BK because, C will never stop playing the game so B might resign before the 50 move rule. That is a strange game I think. -S.
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