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Subject: Re: The probability to find better move is simply irrelevant for diminishing

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 19:31:20 02/09/02

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On February 09, 2002 at 12:31:13, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On February 09, 2002 at 10:50:29, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On February 09, 2002 at 07:44:27, Sune Fischer wrote:
>>
>
>>It is pretty straight thru 15-16 plies...  By experiment.  Which means at
>>least "for a while" deeper is better.  And it _could_ be straight all the
>>way to the depth where we discover the game-theoretic value.  Beyond that
>>point searches can't improve things of course...
>
>By experiment we probably can't decide either way.
>
>Say 13-14 gives a 70 point increase, then 14-15 may only give you 69 extra
>points and 15-16 gives you 68 poins.
>
>This is diminishing returns, but 1 elo probably can't be measured by experiment.
>
>The diviation from linearity is probably within the errorbars of the
>experiments, so I think the experiments are inconclusive rather than in support
>of the no DR theory.
>
>-S.

I simply say there is no evidence to support a diminishing return theory.  It
might happen, or it might not.  Experimental data from today's programs,
searching to depths they might reach in the next couple of years, suggests that
no such diminishing return occurs for at least the next few plies.



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