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Subject: Re: The probability to find better move is simply irrelevant for diminishing

Author: Jeremiah Penery

Date: 22:25:30 02/09/02

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On February 09, 2002 at 22:31:20, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>I simply say there is no evidence to support a diminishing return theory.  It
>might happen, or it might not.  Experimental data from today's programs,
>searching to depths they might reach in the next couple of years, suggests that
>no such diminishing return occurs for at least the next few plies.

I think you're confusing diminishing returns in playing games with diminishing
rate of finding a new best move at higher ply depths.  Just because a program
picks a new move at ply 15 over the move it had at ply 14 doesn't mean the game
outcome will change.  Sometimes it will, but it is not as likely as a new move
found at ply 4 changing the game outcome over a move found at ply 3.



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