Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 20:33:14 02/10/02
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On February 10, 2002 at 04:08:31, Sune Fischer wrote: >On February 09, 2002 at 22:31:20, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>>>It is pretty straight thru 15-16 plies... By experiment. Which means at >>>>least "for a while" deeper is better. And it _could_ be straight all the >>>>way to the depth where we discover the game-theoretic value. Beyond that >>>>point searches can't improve things of course... >>> >>>By experiment we probably can't decide either way. >>> >>>Say 13-14 gives a 70 point increase, then 14-15 may only give you 69 extra >>>points and 15-16 gives you 68 poins. >>> >>>This is diminishing returns, but 1 elo probably can't be measured by experiment. >>> >>>The diviation from linearity is probably within the errorbars of the >>>experiments, so I think the experiments are inconclusive rather than in support >>>of the no DR theory. >>> >>>-S. >> >>I simply say there is no evidence to support a diminishing return theory. It >>might happen, or it might not. Experimental data from today's programs, >>searching to depths they might reach in the next couple of years, suggests that >>no such diminishing return occurs for at least the next few plies. > >Okay, I think you didn't understand what I said. Let me try again: >The experiments don't prove there's isn't DR or that there is DR, they show >_only_ that if there is DR, then it is less than the errorbars in the >experiment. > >Since you do not know how large a DR effect to look for, how can you say there >is no evidence of it? >Probably you have not yet designed a test to reveal it, it is like saying you >don't believe in atoms because you can't see them through a magnifyingglass :) > >One can argue that if the effect is so small then it is not practical >significant, so "no diminishing returns" is close enough ;) > >-S. Note that I qualified my answer. "there is no apparent DR for searches that we do today, or searches we might do in 2 years." I really don't care if there is a .01 DR per ply for the next 5 plies. I only care that there is a definite and pretty constant gain from 12 to 15 plies, which will take me several more years to pass. IE thru depth 15, I am _certain_ that the gains will be both measurable and significant. That will hold me for a while. I'll let those that are 2 years old worry about what happens 100 years out from now. :)
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