Author: Jeremiah Penery
Date: 21:27:56 02/10/02
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On February 10, 2002 at 23:34:36, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On February 10, 2002 at 01:25:30, Jeremiah Penery wrote: > >>On February 09, 2002 at 22:31:20, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>I simply say there is no evidence to support a diminishing return theory. It >>>might happen, or it might not. Experimental data from today's programs, >>>searching to depths they might reach in the next couple of years, suggests that >>>no such diminishing return occurs for at least the next few plies. >> >>I think you're confusing diminishing returns in playing games with diminishing >>rate of finding a new best move at higher ply depths. Just because a program >>picks a new move at ply 15 over the move it had at ply 14 doesn't mean the game >>outcome will change. Sometimes it will, but it is not as likely as a new move >>found at ply 4 changing the game outcome over a move found at ply 3. > > >How can you be sure, at GM-level chess? I can't be sure, but I suspect that the rate of draws goes up as ply depth goes up. This somewhat suggests that when a program changes its mind at higher depths, it is often switching either from one winning move to another winning move, or one drawing move to another move that ultimately draws. Maybe I'm wrong. I think it would be very difficult to set up an experiment that would accurately measure whether the rate of finding a better move has a linear relationship with having a better game outcome. I don't think they're the same thing, but neither can I prove that they aren't.
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