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Subject: Re: A little statistical comment

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 13:36:04 02/21/02

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On February 21, 2002 at 16:32:04, Bill McGaugh wrote:

>On February 21, 2002 at 15:28:13, Thomas Lagershausen wrote:
>
>>Once again. To play matches with 5min/game +3sec is a joke.
>>
>>Chess needs time to find a plan.
>
>Your comment inspired me to do a quick statistical test of the difference
>between the performance of chess programs at lightning speed vs. the performance
>at longer time controls.
>
>I used the two lists on chessfun's site...
>
>To spare you the details, there is not a  statistically significant  difference
>(at alpha=.05) between the two groups based on the evidence on that site.

And yet, I have clearly seen engines perform very differently at different
speeds.

Resp and Gullydeckel overperform at blitz.

Amy and Beowulf underperform at blitz.

The chief thing about a bunch of games is:

You can only draw conclusions about games under the *exact* same conditions.

You can only draw conclusions within the statistical validity of the available
data (e.g. it is silly to say that x is better than y if x has 2 more ELO points
and the error bar is 500 points).

IMO-YMMV.



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